No problems with neighbours

M. HARESHAN

May 15, 2010

These years, new accents have appeared in Turkey's foreign policy. If before this turning point - which can be linked to the name of A. Davutoglu, foreign minister since 2007 - Turkey has displayed a remarkable linearity in its foreign policy, moving towards the West in its position of both NATO member and EU accession candidate, after this moment it adopted what is called an "all-azimuth policy." This is based on a contemporary interpretation of its own national traditions and tries to put to the best use Turkey's very important geostrategic position, at the crossroads between civilisations, and the strategic directions between Europe and Asia. Three regions are particularly interesting for Turkey, in this "tous azimouts" policy - the Caucasus and the Black Sea, the Balkans and the enlarged Middle East.

A main guideline of this new policy referred to regulating relations with neighbors, so that the friendly neighborhood facilitates substantial economic growth.

Actually, Turkey experiences a remarkable economic growth, against the background of a demographic boom, and keeping the current trends requires very predictable and stable foreign relations. While Turkey relies upon this stability for its own development, it needs it even more because some of the planet's most tense areas are in its close vicinity. Thus, proximity to the Middle East makes Turkey sensitive to evolutions in Iran and Iraq, and to the whole array of issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The same, the Caucasus and the Black Sea are also challenges, given the Azeri-Armenian conflict in Nagorno Karabakh, among others.

On the European front, the problem of Northern Cyprus and of a complex relation with Greece in the Aegean Sea are the most prominent topics of interest for Ankara.

Given the new political line adopted by Ankara, the two-day visit paid by Turkish Premier Recep Tayyp Erdogan to Greece - the first after 2004 - comes as no surprise. The severe economic crisis experienced by Greece - which avoided defaulting only due to the firm intervention of EU states, which provided an astronomic loan of US 140 bln - is a first vector of this international context. Besides the fact that this loan comes at the cost of harsh austerity measures regarding domestic consumption (some experts even say it will take Greece a decade to return to its GDP of 2008), there is the reality of military expenses made by both countries now, at a moment when Athens is forced to operate severe cuts in its budget. During the last decades, Turkey and Greece were on the brink of war at least twice, in 1974 and 1996, and the issues of Cyprus and of the Turkish air traffic above the Aegean are still causing tension in bilateral relations. In this situation, if any of the sides acquired military superiority due to a higher defence budget, this would suddenly increase the risk of conflict.

Turkish Premier Erdogan characterised his visit to Greece as "historic." Indeed, for the first time, the cabinets of the two states met in a joint session (Erdogan was accompanied by 10 ministers), and the agreements signed on this occasion are meant to give a new momentum to bilateral relations. In a joint statement delivered on May 14, the two sides presented the agreements as "a big step forward" that will lead to the "strengthening of peace and stability in the region." The agreements refer to many activity sectors: tourism, transport, energy, education, environment, fighting illegal migration. About 100 Turkish businessmen accompanied Erdogan to Greece, as proof of the stronger economic cooperation.

As far as curbing military expenses is concerned, it is clear that appeasing the tension between the two states will be the priority trend, from now on. This was also reflected by the two premiers' statements. Thus, Greek PM G. Papandreou said: "We, with our many islands and the experience of Cyprus, definitely have a fear... Could Turkey at some point decide to take over a Greek island? Don't laugh, such a fear exists, unfortunately. But maybe Turkey is also afraid Greece will attack." He urged Ankara to provide flight plans for its military aircraft using the Aegean area, to avoid their being intercepted by armed Greek fighters. In his turn, Erdogan came with the vision of "the other side" to suggest the comprehensive understanding that has been reached: "Both countries have very large defence budgets... We must reduce these expenditures and use the money for other purposes."

As Greece announced it will lower its defence budget by a quarter, such an agreement is good news for stability in the Eastern Mediterranean. We might even say this allayed fears that Greece's problems might be an invitation to higher tension in bilateral relations.

Both states seem to have entered a win-win game. On one hand, Turkey achieves one of its foreign policy priorities at the Aegean, namely to have no problems with its neighbor, while Greece can thus focus its energy on overcoming its severe problems of late. This is a telltale example of the stimulating force of cooperative security promoted by NATO and the EU in the Euro-Atlantic region.

Undoubtly, Erdogan's visit to Greece, approximately at the same time as that of the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Turkey, is telling about Ankara's dynamic moves in foreign policy. Endeavoring to consolidate its interests in the Black Sea and the Caucasus, as well as the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey is pursuing a daring foreign policy agenda. They might soon create in the above-mentioned areas an environment with great potential to change some of the major trends (mainly in the Black Sea and the Caucasus areas) in which both NATO and the European Union are interested - or have initiated them altogether.